BEYOND GAS:
Building New Zealand’s Renewable Future
As New Zealand’s gas supply continues its long-term decline, the conversation must shift from what we’re losing to what we can build next.
In this latest blog, Brett Rogers, Director Development at Kākāriki, explores our 600% Vision and the opportunity to unlock abundant renewable energy as a foundation for new industries, stronger regional economies, digital infrastructure, and long-term national prosperity.
Energy and Prosperity Go Hand in Hand
Globally, there is a strong correlation between energy consumption and economic well being on a per-capita basis. Nations with access to abundant, affordable energy typically enjoy higher living standards, stronger industries and more resilient economies (see graph below).
This is where the 600% Vision becomes particularly compelling.
My analysis suggests that if New Zealand develops six times its current electricity generation capacity using renewable resources, the resulting abundance of low-cost energy would support an increase in GDP of around 37%. This is not simply about replacing fossil fuels or electrifying existing energy demand; it is about creating the foundation for entirely new economic activity. The improvement in national outcomes is derived from energy abundance (capturing more energy) and smart energy use.
A renewable energy surplus would enable New Zealand to expand energy-intensive industries, attract new investment, develop advanced manufacturing capabilities, support digital infrastructure and unlock opportunities that are currently constrained by energy availability and cost.
In short, the 600% Vision is not merely an energy strategy—it is an economic development strategy. It provides a pathway to higher productivity, more jobs, increased exports and improved prosperity for future generations of New Zealanders.
It’s been a while since my last post, and unfortunately the news from New Zealand’s gas sector remains challenging. The April announcement that the once-mighty Maui gas field is expected to cease production at the end of this year marks the end of an era for New Zealand energy (see graph forecast).
Maui has been the backbone of our gas industry for decades, and its closure is another reminder of the structural decline facing domestic gas supply.
Todd Energy’s continued investment and development at Mangahewa has provided a modest improvement in New Zealand’s gas reserves picture and deserves recognition. Unfortunately however, the long-term trajectory for New Zealand gas remains in decline.
Rather than dwelling on our current predicament, isn’t it time to focus our attention on what comes next?
Thinking Bigger: The 600% Vision
At Kākāriki, we are passionate supporters of what has become known as the 600% Vision - the idea that New Zealand has the potential to develop six times its current electricity generation capacity.
At first glance, that may sound ambitious. But when you consider New Zealand’s extraordinary renewable energy resources, it becomes a realistic and exciting vision for our future by harnessing a combination of onshore and offshore wind, solar generation, geothermal energy, hydroelectricity, biomass and long duration battery storage. We have the opportunity to fundamentally reshape the energy system and economy.
More Than Just Electricity
The most exciting aspect of the 600% vision is that it is not simply about generating more electricity. Today, electricity serves only a portion of our total energy needs. As we electrify transport, industrial heat processes and residential heating, demand for renewable electricity will grow substantially. Abundant renewable energy creates entirely new economic opportunities. Cheap, reliable, low-emissions energy could underpin: Advanced manufacturing, Hydrogen production, Data centres, Process industries, Export-oriented energy products, High-value technology businesses.
These industries bring investment, productivity and importantly, jobs.
A National Conversation Worth Having
The question is not whether New Zealand has renewable energy potential. The question is: what do we want to do with it?
As renewable generation grows and energy becomes more abundant, New Zealanders will have choices to make about the future shape of our economy. Do we focus on electrifying existing demand? Do we attract new industries? Do we become an exporter of renewable energy products? Or do we pursue all of the above?
These are important conversations that deserve attention from business leaders, policymakers, investors and communities alike. The decline of New Zealand’s gas industry presents real challenges. But it also provides an opportunity to think bigger and plan further ahead.
Rather than viewing the end of Maui as the closing of a chapter, perhaps we should see it as the beginning of a much larger story—one where New Zealand leverages its world-class renewable resources to build a more prosperous, secure and sustainable future.
As we continue the journey towards 600%, that is a future worth thinking about.